Welcome to the Skeptical Investor Newsletter. A frank, hopefully insightful, dive into real estate and financial markets. From one real estate investor to another.

This week, we’re talkin’ Middle East conflict part 1000, energy and inflation, and separating investment signals, headlines and noise.

Let’s get into it.

Just woke up, I miss anything?

I’m still out in Montana’s mountain country for another day, but I couldn’t miss a chance to provide some [un]solicited opinions on the goings-on.

Whelp…what a difference a [couple] day[s] makes….

Late last week, we finally made the round trip back to 5% interest rates.

And here’s where we are today.

And just when the 2026 market was starting to heat up.

Pending mortgage applications had been above their 2025 levels, spiking up in February as rates continued to ease.

And then…

Ah the humanity!

Imagine waking up Monday being pulled out of bed — not needing to pushing yourself out of it.

That pull isn't motivation. It isn't willpower. It's what happens when Tony Robbins conditions a different identity into your nervous system.  An identity doesn't wait, doesn't hesitate, doesn't negotiate with itself.

That's what Unleash the Power Within does. It’s not inspiration. It’s Conditioning. The patterns that keep you hesitating, shrinking, and circling the same problems — Tony interrupts them at the root and installs new ones. You don't leave motivated. You leave re-wired differently.

4 days. Virtual. March 12–15. 5 million people across 195 countries have done this. It’s your time. 

Save $100 by getting a ticket before March 6th. After that the price goes up. But the real cost is another year pushing instead of being pulled.

Ready to Rewire? Register Now.

Bond market participants are selling off 10-year Treasury bonds hard today, which raises the interest rate it pays, and like a rising tide, this brings up the interest rate investors will require for competing assets, like mortgage securities.

Bond prices and yields move inversely.

As I write, the 10-yr Treasury bond is trading at 4.057%, up from 3.96% last week.

Remember, mortgage rates track the 10-yr Treasury rate, not the Federal Reserve’s interest rate (the Fed Funds Rate), as they are competing assets investors buy for a relatively low-risk or risk-free return, respectively.

So why are investors shedding Treasuries?

Oil.

Let me explain.

Now, ordinarily, wars and geopolitical events spark uncertainty in the market, triggering a flight to safety, ie investors buy the safest asset in the world, the US Treasury bond.

This actually would make interest rates plummet.

But, when the conflict itself may be inflationary, and investors perceive the level of national security danger from the events to be minimal, investors favor the former as the greater threat to their investment dollars.

Why?

Inflation erodes the value of bond interest payments, which stay fixed throughout the bond’s life, regardless of what happens to prices in the economy. Inflation means prices for goods and services rise over time. When prices go up, each dollar buys less than it did before — a loss of purchasing power and wealth.

Hence, if one fears future inflation, sell sell Treasuries.

The conflict in the Middle East has market participants concerned about future oil and gas prices.

Oil and natural gas are the primary means of energy production in the world, and the primary input cost to producing goods and providing services - from milk and manufacturing, to construction labor and package delivery - is energy.

Energy is like gravity; it affects everything.

And the global energy market is a tangled mess of interconnected parties where rising prices in one area affect the total market.

One of the world’s largest guzzlers of oil is China.

But China does not produce much crude oil domestically. They just don’t have it.

So they import it.

And, perhaps coincidentally (perhaps not), of all that imported crude, 80% of it has to pass through the Straight of Hormuz.

Which is now shut down.

And, further, much of China’s oil imports come from Iran directly. In fact, China buys nearly 90% of Iran’s total exported oil.

So, if they need to (and they will), they will pay more to buy it from other sources, which will lift global oil prices.

Another major exporter to China?

Venezuela.

Hmmmmm, I seem to remember something about them and us in the news too… 😬

So, China has a problem today, which hopefully will be helpful in future negotiations.

As an aside, this is the primary reason they have invested so heavily in solar, nuclear, coal and electric cars in the past 10 years.

Solar:

Coal:

They are expanding electricity generation exponentially. Just look at this chart.

Total:

Natural gas prices, too, are not immune from this conflict.

Qatar, the world’s largest liquid natural gas exporter (~ 20% of global supply), just announced it has halted all liquefied natural gas (LNG) production after Iranian drone strikes hit 2 key facilities in the country.

As of this writing, the supply was still shut down.

Now, this was a precautionary shutdown in response to the attacks, and likely temporary, but this kind of supply disruption is compounding energy price concerns, especially for countries that rely on LNG for electricity/manufacturing.

Importantly, in the US, we have plenty of domestic natural gas, but again, this is a global market, and energy prices will rise, even if we are relatively insulated.

In the US, natural gas makes up a large part of electricity generation.

Quick Ad Break….RentRedi

Enter RentRedi. Built by landlords, for landlords

Inspired by people like you, RentRedi makes managing properties smarter, simpler, and more human. Many members of our team also own and manage rental properties.

Plus, Skeptical Investor readers get $100 off. Click this referral link and test drive today!

Want to advertise to the more than 50,000+ weekly readers of The Skeptical Investor? You can! Advertise with us; we can help you grow your business. Reach out.

Ok, back to business.

Avoiding any thorny politics, the simple fact is that energy input costs are a future cost to consumers and are why the US Administration has made lowering energy prices, specifically fossil fuels, a foundation of their economic growth agenda.

They call it “American Energy Dominance” or “Unleash American Energy,” arguing that cheap, abundant domestic fossil fuels act like a multiplier for the whole economy: lower utility bills, cheaper gasoline, reduced transportation and manufacturing costs, more jobs, less inflation, and stronger national security.

They even made a new fancy website just the other day. Link here.

Fortunately for us Americans, this is not as much a national security problem as it is a potential inflation problem. Again, I’m avoiding politics here; I’m always just looking in from an investment perspective.

Inflation is once again THE concern for the market today.

But how likely is it to persist and what will be the magnitude?

Unknown.

It depends on the depth and breadth of our engagement in this conflict.

And be skeptical of the pundits.

Anyone who tells you they know how long this will last and what extent our involvement will be is not a serious person.

War is by definition undetermined.

What is known is that while recent swings in energy commodities have not yet reached consumers’ receipts, this conflict in particular has the power to move markets, prices, and interest rates.

And it’s already started to push gas prices higher.

Rising transportation costs are expected to follow, passing costs on from fertilizer, food and other goods in the weeks ahead.

Case in point: food prices edged up slightly today.

The primary mover of markets is the strangle on global trade via a blockage of the Straight of Hormuz, and to a lesser extend the flow of Iranian oil.

If the conflict is short-lived, this effect will be fleeting and will subside.

But if not, it could be much more significant.

Now, I don’t expect this critical trade route to be closed for long.

But you never know…

Then again, I’m a gambling man, so all this being said, let's have a little fun and make some predictions based on my experience in government and the real estate industry for the last 20 years (not investment advice!)

This conflict is noise.

Not signal.

I am still holding on to my prediction of lower mortgage rates in the mid-5s by year’s end.

This conflict will not disrupt global trade in the area past 30 days, likely fewer.

But then again, you never know.

For me, I am trying to remain grounded and focused.

I’m ignoring the salacious headlines and not letting emotions affect my judgments.

Because, just like miss Dinah sang, what a difference a day makes…and the difference is you.

You have faculty over your own life.

Stay based, remain true to your investment thesis in this time of uncertainty.

Until next time. Stay Curious. Stay Skeptical.

Herzliche Grüße,

-The Skeptical Investor

P.S. Want to level up your real estate game?

You can consult with me, The Skeptical Investor! Get professional advice from someone who actually owns, operates, and brokers real estate.

Want to Grow? - Get clarity on how to grow your business or scale.

Stuck? - Get answers to your problem, let's hop on the phone and figure it out.

No "guru" trying to sell you an expensive course. No BS. No fluff. Only results.

I'll give you my frank, brutally honest advice. Book a call with me today.

It’s 2026. Be an owner.

Schedule your 1-on-1 call now.

We have passed 50,000 subs! Thank you for your support, next stop, 60,000!

Please help grow the community!

It takes me several hours to write this weekly article, and they will always remain free (but you get some pretty cool perks with premium, including a one-on-one with yours truly :). All I ask is that you share it with 1 friend. Just 1. If you do, you will get two gifts: free education for one of your friends, and good karma for helping to grow a community of folks trying to figure out a way to create wealth for their family.

What, did you want, a cookie? 😅 

Paid subscribers get the best stuff! Join the Skeptical Investor Community to access:

We are real estate agents for investors, because we are investors. We specialize in helping investors find, analyze and negotiate great real estate deals, as well as manage their rental properties, here in Nashville, TN. We pride ourselves on being tough negotiators. We want our clients to get an amazing deal, we never let our clients pay retail.

Enjoying this newsletter? Know somebody looking to buy real estate? Send them to the best in the business, THE Nashville Investor Agent! Referring real estate business helps us keep the lights on and me keep pushing out fresh real estate analysis each and every week. Help peep this newsletter going for all you awesome folks out there; refer someone to us when you may hear they are in need. We promise to take great care of them and make sure they get a fantastic deal. They will thank you for it.

If you or someone you know are looking for an investment property, give us a call today!

You can also find out more about us and what we offer on our website: www.NashvilleInvestorAgent.com

Why Nashville? There is always a bull market somewhere, and one of them is Nashville. We have the lowest unemployment rate of the top 25 major cities and folks are moving here to take those jobs. Nearly 90+ people per day move to Nashville. And tourism continues to hit record levels. This past year 16.8 million folks visited our lively city. Plus we have 3 professional sports teams (hopefully a 4th soon), massive healthcare and entertainment industries, heavy manufacturing, more than a dozen colleges, no state income tax… to name a few amazing advantages. Come check us out, the water is warm :).