This is a Rasputin Economy

Welcome to the Skeptical Investor Newsletter. A frank, hopefully insightful, dive into real estate and financial markets. From one real estate investor to another.

This week, we’re talkin’ a smokin’ hot US GDP number, steady consumer data, government shutdown, and I do a deep dive into the Bureau of Economic Analysis and how they arrive at the GDP number we all follow. Spoiler, data collection methodology.

Let’s get into it.

The second quarter of this year was just revised up to 3.8%, which is the best second quarter since Q2 2021, and the best overall quarter since Q3 2023.

This despite:

Finally, a revision in the economic data that is not totally horrible!

This is a very positive number, up .5% from expectations.

Reacting live, CNBC’s Rick Santelli was a bit surprised, saying, “I’m a bit shocked to be honest.”

Much of this revision was due to an unexpected acceleration in consumer spending. Economists were caught offside, trying to predict the effects of tariff policy, and thought we would see a slowdown of the consumer in the face of higher prices. This expectation has yet to materialize.

The major contributors? There was actually broad participation from much of industry.

In this report, personal consumption data from the consumer gave us insight into the health of the economy, and, shocker, folks be spendin’!

An important fact: consumer spending is ~2/3 of the US GDP. In other words, the consumer is the economy.

Personal consumption (PCE) spending was up 0.3% gain for the month, putting the annual PCE inflation at 2.7%, and up 2.9% (up .2%), excluding volatile food and energy prices.

And while all these inflation numbers were in line with consensus forecasts, spending and income numbers were slightly higher than expected.

Good! Although the trend is toward softer income growth, with stagnant inflation.

What are consumers spending on? All kinds of fun stuff.

The Donkeys and Elephants are fighting again in DC and may not come to an agreement to fund the government for the next fiscal year (which starts October 1st).

Ignoring the stupidity of this, it is apropos to our discussion.

Why?

During a government shutdown (the government doesn’t actually shut down it just runs in “safe mode” funds for critical “essential” services continue) the BLS and BEA will be two of the agencies that will suspend operations. This includes halting the release of scheduled economic data reports. This means reports like the monthly jobs, inflation and GDP numbers would be delayed until funding is restored.

This is the king of lowered expectations Ala the 1999 MADtv sketch (classic!).

Cool. Cool…

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Ok, back to business.

Estimates for US Q3 GDP by the Atlanta Fed are up too, GDP is now expected to be 3.9%, up from 3.3% in their last estimate.

Gangbusters!

The culprit? You guessed it, as we just outlined, the US consumer is still spending normally, and is remaining much healthier than expected amidst a weakening labor market (which is mainly young folks, with less $ to burn) and tariff/trade policy not affecting prices as was expected. The Atlanta Fed now sees real personal consumption expenditures to be up next quarter, from 2.7% to a healthy 3.4%.

Good!

But this is just an estimate; we will see what comes to fruition.

In fact, the Q2 GDP number above? That was the third estimate by the BEA.

Wait what?

Yep, estimate #3. And while that was the final monthly revision, there will be several more revisions. Why? We live in a world of surveys, estimates, and assumptions by government, and less hard/actual data from industry.

Now, I've been picking on the Bureau of Labor Statistics over at the Department of Labor, these last few months. So I thought, time to turn my ire to the Department of Commerce and its Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Let’s go a little deeper into what they are actually doing over there to get these GDP numbers.

The BEA is responsible for calculating and releasing estimates of GDP, a measure of the total value of goods and services produced in the U.S. economy. These estimates are not fixed; instead, they evolve over time as more data becomes available from various sources, such as surveys, tax records, and administrative data. This iterative process is an effort to improve to estimate’s approximation of what is actually happening in the economy, but also means the “final” number can change multiple times.

It often does.

The BEA releases 3 quarterly estimates for each quarter’s GDP: the advance estimate (typically about a month after the quarter ends), the second estimate (two months after), and the third estimate (roughly three months after).

After that, GDP figures are subject to further revisions through annual updates (usually in July of the following year) and comprehensive revisions (every five years or so), which incorporate more complete source data. Oddly, these aren’t counted as additional “estimates,” though, so the core number is 3.

After the third estimate, GDP data undergoes further updates through 2 main types of revisions, which can alter the numbers multiple times over many years.

Annnnnnd, in some (more rare) cases, there might also be “special” or out-of-cycle revisions if significant new data emerges or, the methodology changes, which happens.

Fairly frequently, actually. I did not know this.

The BEA periodically conducts “Comprehensive Revisions” to the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs), which include GDP calculations. These revisions, typically every 5 years, incorporate new source data, definitional changes, methodological improvements, and presentational updates to enhance accuracy, consistency, and international comparability.

The BEA has performed 12 major overhauls of its methodology since WW2, including in 1958, 1965, 1976, 1985, 1991, 1996, 1999, 2003, 2009, 2013, 2018, and most recently in 2023, where we “introduced new PCE price indexes excluding food, energy, and housing (and services excluding energy and housing.”

Why So Many Revisions?

The BEA’s estimates use incomplete data in an effort to inform policymakers, businesses, and the public quickly, but as more information trickles in, or is lagging or is from a survey that was underrepresented (from sources like the Census Bureau or IRS), revisions refine the picture. It's important to realize that the estimates are rarely correct, not the other way around.

On average:

Wow.

Frankly, I have to call balls and strikes here, including when it’s positive.

This Q2 GDP reading is great news. But it’s not a final number.

Ever since the insane 2024-2025 BLS labor and employment data revisions (you can read my rants on that here), I remain highly skeptical of these bureau estimates.

And will be until further notice.

Instead, I view all of this through an investment kaleidoscope. They are helpful in showing trends and momentum of the economy / US consumer. The problem is this data is often lagging at best, and plain wrong at worst, especially given the high use of surveys and assumptions rather than actual/measurable data.

This data is signal, not fact. We should treat it that way.

For example, remember the other week when I said it seemed like there was an odd anomaly in Texas’ unemployment numbers, which spiked the overall US unemployment number?

Well, it turns out it was fraud.

Crazy town.

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So far we are living in a Rasputin economy. You can’t keep us down, hell, the bean counters over at BEA can’t even keep up.

And the economic data Bureaus often get it wrong, sometimes for more than a year until the actual numbers are recorded by the IRS. But it's likely not their fault. The archaic way of collecting data is making them fight with one arm tied behind their back. Frankly, surveys are a stupid collection method in 2025. We need a new way.

The BEA has refined its methodology many times over the years. So when I hear concerns about changes by this Administration over at these Bureaus, I don’t bristle. In fact, perhaps it’s an appropriate time for a government data OS update?

For example, in 1985 IBM helped the BEA develop “hedonic regression techniques (with assistance from IBM) to account for rapid improvements in speed, capacity, and quality.”

It’s 2025. Why aren’t we collecting this data directly from private sector operators? Why are we using so many surveys? Why do we need to insert so many assumptions and guesses when we don’t have the data? The government doesn’t have this data in the first place; businesses do. We need a major data-source and presentation overhaul.

The Secretaries of Labor and Commerce shouldn’t just be asking “Is this really the best we can do?” They should be asking a First Principles question:

“If we were to create this data collection today from scratch, how would we do it?

Get on it lady and gent.

Until next time. Stay Curious. Stay Skeptical.

Herzliche Grüße,

-The Skeptical Investor

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