Welcome to the Skeptical Investor Newsletter. A frank, hopefully insightful, dive into real estate and financial markets. From one real estate investor to another.

This week, we’re talkin’ global oil panic and …you know what… never mind that. The oil price and inflation story has been told ad nauseam to scare us adults at night. It will not be the crisis the talking heads on the tele are bloviating.

We will soon look back on this inflation scare as a fleeting concern.

So today I’m reminding myself to look for contrarian signals. And I see some real green shoots in the economy. A leviathan is stirring deep down.

And what does a potential economic boom start with?

Trucking.

Followed closely by construction and manufacturing.

Let’s get into it.

Brent crude oil has climbed sharply prompting fresh hand-wringing about sticky prices/inflation.

Yet history suggests this scare will prove more fleeting than fundamental. We have heard these narratives often enough to recognize them for what they are: useful headline fodder, not a reliable guide.

Instead, this Skeptical Investor turns his attention to contrarian signals bubbling up from deep beneath the surface.

Early 2026 data from the real economy—trucking, construction, and manufacturing—point to a leviathan awakening, one that may be quietly underpinning a broader expansion, as the headline commentariat fixates on oil barrels and CPI prints.

A potential boom almost always begins with freight. Trucking volumes and rates serve as the economy’s early-warning system, after all, to produce stuff, you need stuff.

A lot of stuff.

Orders for large Class 8 trucks (aka “semis”) exploded in February to 46,200 units—a 156% surge from the prior year—as manufacturers position for higher volumes ahead (ACT).

Ford is ramping Super Duty truck production by more than 50,000 units in 2026, adding capacity at key heavy-duty plants (Ford).

Volvo had its "strongest February ever" for Class 8 truck orders.

Hyundai Translead announced two new trailer manufacturing facilities in Illinois this month, a $450 million investment that will create 2,500 jobs and boost U.S. capacity for dry vans and refrigerated units (Illinois EDC).

And GM just announced it will operate it’s heavy duty truck production plants 6-days a week to keep up with demand (WSJ).

Remember, this is all happening right in the face of high gas/diesel prices.

Fleets put off purchases until they had confidence in the future demand.

That is happening now.

Let’s look at the primary/services side of freight trucking, aka when you hire that truck to get you what you need to the job site.

As I’ve recently learned, there are 3 other types of trucking too, not just those big Class 8 semis.

We have flatbeds, reefer (that’s refrigerated, not the other reefer, kids) and vans.

And, right now, all 3 of these freight truckload modes are seeing new rate cycle highs (Fuller).

These rates are up because of wild demand. In fact, the demand is so strong that almost HALF of all orders are being rejected.

Let’s look at that: flatbed tender rejection rates:

This is a major bullish signal.

First, I know what you’re asking: What the hell is a trucking rejection rate?

Flatbed rejection rates are actually key metrics in the freight and logistics industry. They measure the % of contracted flatbed truckload tenders (offers from shippers to carriers to haul specific loads) that carriers decline or reject.

High rejection rates indicate a tightening of capacity in the market—meaning there are fewer available flatbed trucks relative to higher demand—allowing carriers to be more selective about which loads they accept, often in favor of higher-paying spot market opportunities.

For context, as of early 2026, flatbed rejection rates have surged to ~50%, which is unusually high and signals strong demand. This isn’t just a seasonal blip.

And just overnight, daily trucking van spot rates exploded +$.16/mile to $3.17/mile.

This rally is historic.

And as such, we are seeing some of the most aggressive freight demand and bullish industry indicators, really, since COVID.

And what’s interesting about it, trucking demand is plowing right through high diesel prices ($5/gal now).

And a point on oil prices.

Analysts have said anywhere from $130 to $170 for WTI (crude oil) is really the tipping point where you see demand destruction for trucking services.

Except for the past 20 years.

Why?

We are fossil fuel independent.

“[In the U.S., fuel prices are insulated from high oil prices because the US produces so much of its own oil, so much of its natural gas, that our products globally become more competitive as you have issues around the world, and it actually drives manufacturing], rather than destroy it (Fuller).”

This is a big deal for US GDP growth expectations, relative to the bad news we see in the press/headlines/pundits, etc...

Add to this a full year (2025) of demand that was destroyed over concerns from liberation-day tariffs, the upcoming 2026 boon from the 2025 tax cuts for capital investment (Big Beautiful Bill Act) and we have quite the bullish setup for the next 18+ months.

According to trucking analyst Craig Fuller, “If we were having an industrial renaissance, a manufacturing surge, you would see it in the flatbed data first. This is exactly what we are seeing right now — that flatbed is surging because it is the raw materials going into production.”

Translation: Even if you are bullish, “you are not bullish enough.”

Send it!

Fact: People will spend for love.

Americans spent $66 billion on weddings last year. And, as always, flowers were a non-negotiable part of that spend. This highlights a unique market opportunity for The Bouqs Co. right now.

Famous for cutting the time it takes flowers to travel farm-to-door by 3x, The Bouqs Co. is already one of the country’s largest floral subscription services. But their latest expansion to 70+ brick-and-mortar stores could unlock more high-margin events, like weddings.

They already have 100% YoY growth in counties where stores have opened, with more than $1.2m in revenue per store.

You can join this chapter as they capture more of the $100b global floral market. Become an early shareholder in The Bouqs Co.

Invest in The Bouqs Co.

^{This is a paid advertisement for The Bouq’s Regulation CF offering. Please read the offering circular at https://invest.bouqs.com/}

Up 6.3%+ (AAR).

Weekly rail traffic for most everything is UP, led by chemical demand (doubly good for manufacturing).

Again, flatbed trucking and rail traffic are key indicators of manufacturing and construction demand in the economy.

After all, you need to move big stuff to build big stuff.

Let’s take a look at what’s starting to sprout in both of these sectors:

Construction spending is near record territory at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.190 trillion in January 2026—up 1.0% from a year earlier despite a modest monthly dip. Public highway work advanced 3.3% month-over-month, while private residential and nonresidential segments remain substantial contributors to overall activity (Census).

A labor shortage in residential construction has contributed to strong job growth, robust wages, and bonuses for workers. Hiring for construction workers jumped in the beginning of the year, and construction firms still can’t get enough. Skilled workers are demanding a premium. YoY pay increase among job-changers was 6.6% in January.

After seeing a break in growth in 2025, which saw stagnation for much of last year, construction jobs are reaccelerating, adding 33,000 jobs in January, one of the strongest monthly increases in recent years.

The Associated Builders and Contractors estimates the industry will need to attract 349,000 net new workers this year simply to meet demand (TCA).

The US Department of Agriculture is stepping in by buttressing construction, too, this time via lumber.

USDA will fund $115.2M across eight states to boost sawmills and wood processing, expanding timber production by 25%.

Wow.

A Quick Ad Break….RentRedi

Enter RentRedi. Built by landlords, for landlords

Inspired by people like you, RentRedi makes managing properties smarter, simpler, and more human. Many members of our team also own and manage rental properties.

Plus, Skeptical Investor readers get $100 off. Click this referral link and test drive today!

Want to advertise to the more than 30,000+ weekly readers of The Skeptical Investor? You can! Advertise with us; we can help you grow your business. Reach out.

Ok, back to business.

Manufacturing has now posted back-to-back months of expansion, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 52.4 in February—above the key 50 threshold and supported by rising new orders (55.8) and a backlog index that climbed to 56.6, its highest reading since May 2022 (ISM).

And it may be this demand for manufacturing that is driving the construction industry to explode higher.

Announcements continue for new facilities across pharmaceuticals (Eli Lilly), semiconductors (Micron), and heavy equipment, adding billions in U.S. production capacity (IS).

Manufacturing activity in March expanded at the fastest pace in months. Both manufacturing and services are up. You’ll need to go back to May 2021 to find a hotter manufacturing print.

And US business confidence, profit outlooks and real net wages are rising.

It’s early, but the manufacturing economy may be setting up to absolutely roar in 2026+.

Again, sprouts. Green shoots. Seedlings germinating… The figures above are signals of what may be to come.

Rising demand for freight drives warehouse and distribution-center leasing. New plants and construction hiring translate into industrial space requirements and supporting infrastructure.

But the cycle remains early and fragile—none of this guarantees a full boom—but the real-economy signals under the surface are worth far more attention than the latest oil-price hysteria.

Economic growth turns before the headlines catch up.

A Note On Inflation:

It is also true that a spiking demand, such as for trucking, is likely inflationary, but it’s not what you think. Historically, even if transportation costs doubled, it would lead to an increase in food prices of about 5%, and total consumer prices of abut 1% only (Fuller, Fuller).

Remember, oil prices today are about the same as they were three years ago.

Total price.

And as a % YoY change.

Again, these are not yet roaring numbers, but a contrarian/skeptical investor would be well paid to watch early economic signals closely, before the leviathan reveals itself...

Are these signals portending an economic boom?

Or will an extended conflict in the Middle East, high fuel prices, and long-term inflation nip those economic green shoots in the bud?

It is inevitable that we face problems, but no particular problem is inevitable.

I see this data as bullish rather than confirmation of either disaster or euphoria. The real economy—freight moving, plants expanding, workers being hired—often foreshadows good times before the headlines adjust their narrative. For real estate investors, that means keeping a measured eye on industrial and warehouse demand, construction employment, infrastructure projects, and the supporting buildout in trucking and manufacturing capacity.

I will continue tracking these indicators in the weeks ahead, separating signal from noise.

Until next time. Stay Curious. Stay Skeptical.

Herzliche Grüße,

-The Skeptical Investor

P.S. Want to level up your real estate game?

You can consult with me, The Skeptical Investor! Get professional advice from someone who actually owns, operates, and brokers real estate.

Want to Grow? - Get clarity on how to grow your business or scale.

Stuck? - Get answers to your problem, let's hop on the phone and figure it out.

No "guru" trying to sell you an expensive course. No BS. No fluff. Only results.

I'll give you my frank, brutally honest advice. Book a call with me today.

It’s 2026. Be an owner.

Schedule your 1-on-1 call now.

We have passed 50,000 subs! Thank you for your support, next stop, 60,000!

Please help grow the community!

It takes me several hours to write this weekly article, and they will always remain free (but you get some pretty cool perks with premium, including a one-on-one with yours truly :). All I ask is that you share it with 1 friend. Just 1. If you do, you will get two gifts: free education for one of your friends, and good karma for helping to grow a community of folks trying to figure out a way to create wealth for their family.

What, did you want, a cookie? 😅 

Paid subscribers get the best stuff! Join the Skeptical Investor Community to access:

We are real estate agents for investors, because we are investors. We specialize in helping investors find, analyze and negotiate great real estate deals, as well as manage their rental properties, here in Nashville, TN. We pride ourselves on being tough negotiators. We want our clients to get an amazing deal, we never let our clients pay retail.

Enjoying this newsletter? Know somebody looking to buy real estate? Send them to the best in the business, THE Nashville Investor Agent! Referring real estate business helps us keep the lights on and me keep pushing out fresh real estate analysis each and every week. Help peep this newsletter going for all you awesome folks out there; refer someone to us when you may hear they are in need. We promise to take great care of them and make sure they get a fantastic deal. They will thank you for it.

If you or someone you know are looking for an investment property, give us a call today!

You can also find out more about us and what we offer on our website: www.NashvilleInvestorAgent.com

Why Nashville? There is always a bull market somewhere, and one of them is Nashville. We have the lowest unemployment rate of the top 25 major cities and folks are moving here to take those jobs. Nearly 90+ people per day move to Nashville. And tourism continues to hit record levels. This past year 16.8 million folks visited our lively city. Plus we have 3 professional sports teams (hopefully a 4th soon), massive healthcare and entertainment industries, heavy manufacturing, more than a dozen colleges, no state income tax… to name a few amazing advantages. Come check us out, the water is warm :).